Fed, IPCA-15 and GDP: Key Market Events

What key events are markets watching this week?

After a relatively quiet week for economic data, markets are bracing for a packed schedule of central bank decisions and heavyweight indicators that could move financial assets in Brazil and abroad.

What will the Federal Reserve decide?

The Fed's Wednesday, July 29 meeting is the top global event. Markets are not pricing in a rate hike despite a recent jump in oil prices, but the possibility of a split decision is growing, with some officials reportedly favouring an increase in the fed funds rate.

Which Brazilian indicators are in focus?

The IPCA-15 inflation preview for July, due Tuesday July 28, is the domestic highlight. It comes after benign June inflation readings and will be scrutinised closely by market participants. Thursday brings two labour market releases: the Pnad Contínua unemployment rate for June and the Caged formal jobs data for June — both watched as signs of a cooling Brazilian economy.

What other central banks are meeting?

The Bank of England (BoE) meets Thursday, July 30. Overnight into Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its decision after adopting a more hawkish tone in unofficial communications.

What international data rounds out the week?

Thursday also delivers euro-zone and US GDP figures for Q2, alongside the US Personal Income and Spending report for June. The PCE deflator — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — will attract particular attention.