Brazil's Oil Reserves: Why Drilling Is Stalling

Why are Brazil's oil reserves at risk?

Brazil drilled only 19 exploratory wells in 2025 — up from a historic low of 10 in 2024, but still far below the 150 wells drilled in 2011, the peak year recorded by the ANP (Brazil's national oil regulator) since it began tracking data in 1998. Experts warn that without a sharp increase in exploration activity, the country risks reversing a 15-year production growth trend.

What happened to drilling activity after 2011?

After the 2011 peak, the decline was steep: 122 wells in 2012, 65 in 2013, 41 in 2014, and 43 in 2015. Since 2016, no single year has exceeded 20 exploratory wells. Cristiano Pinto da Costa, outgoing president of Shell Brasil, described it as "a vertiginous fall" that puts the next decade of production at serious risk.

Which new frontiers are being left unexplored?

Telmo Ghiorzi, president of Abespetro (the Brazilian oil services industry association), pointed out that between 2018 and 2024, not a single exploratory well was drilled in new frontier areas. One of 2025's 19 wells — the Morpho well in the Foz do Amazonas Basin — took 12 years of environmental licensing before drilling could begin.

What needs to change?

Experts across the sector converge on two solutions: more licensing rounds (leilões) to attract investment, and a faster, more predictable environmental licensing process. Claudio Nunes, executive director at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP), stresses that even mature pre-salt fields are declining in reservoir volume, making new discoveries essential to replace reserves. Ghiorzi noted that Norway, despite its high income, is drilling far more new wells in the North Sea than Brazil, actively expanding its reserve base.