Brazil Runs $144 bn Deficit Yet Faces US Tariffs

Does Brazil Really Owe the US a Trade Favour?

The numbers tell a striking story. Over 41 years of merchandise trade tracked by the US Census Bureau, Brazil has accumulated a $144 billion deficit (approximately R$ 734 billion) with the United States — meaning Washington, not Brasília, has been the consistent winner. The US recorded a positive trade balance in 26 of those 41 years.

What About Services?

When services are added to the equation, the gap widens dramatically. Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that the United States earned a combined $480 billion (R$ 2.4 trillion) surplus with Brazil between 2000 and 2025. Despite this, Washington imposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports and an additional 12.5% levy citing alleged failures to combat forced labour.

How Did US Officials Respond?

When pressed during his Senate confirmation hearing, Daniel Perez — nominated as US Ambassador to Brazil — acknowledged the surplus but declined to justify the new tariffs. "This tariff was implemented while I was sleeping. I will get better informed in the coming weeks," he said. Jamieson Greer, head of the USTR, argued that non-tariff and regulatory barriers by Brazil still justify the measures, even in the face of a US surplus.

Why Does the Balance Swing?

Political scientist Cristina Pecequilo of the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp) explains that the oscillations in bilateral trade are driven not by the US party in power, but by Brazil's degree of alignment with Washington. When Brazil pursues an independent foreign policy and pushes for reform of the global order, it tends to face greater American pressure. During the 1985–1995 period, Brazil actually held positive trade balances with the US. The picture changed gradually during the Fernando Henrique Cardoso era, as Brazil ramped up purchases of American aircraft, vehicles, electronics and telecoms equipment.