Why Are Copper Prices Hitting Records Now?

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper futures for the three-month contract — the most traded — were changing hands at $13,791 per tonne, approaching the all-time high of $14,527.50 set on January 29. Copper has outperformed other non-ferrous metals such as aluminium and nickel.

How Does AI Infrastructure Drive Copper Demand?

Copper is a critical material for AI infrastructure: it is used in the electrical grids that power data centres. Electric vehicles also require three to four times more copper than petrol-powered cars, adding another layer of structural demand.

What Supply Disruptions Are Pushing Prices Higher?

The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia — the world's second-largest by output — was hit by a landslide last September. The mine was previously expected to recover to about 85% of capacity in the second half of this year, but that forecast has been revised down to roughly 65%.

What Role Are US Tariff Fears Playing?

In July 2025, the Trump administration signalled a possible 15% tariff on refined copper, with an expected start date of 2027, though no official announcement has been made. In anticipation, US buyers have been stockpiling: Comex copper inventories in New York have risen more than 40% since the start of the year. This surge of copper into the US has caused LME warehouse stocks to fall to their lowest level in around five months.

How Tight Is Supply in China?

China accounts for 60% of global copper consumption and is also the world's largest producer, but exports to countries such as the United States are deepening domestic shortages. By late July, Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks stood at approximately 69,000 tonnes — the lowest in about two and a half years and an 80% drop from the mid-March peak. The Shanghai premium, which measures the gap between LME prices and Shanghai import prices, hit $115 per tonne on July 22, a level not seen since November 2022. Beijing has not yet moved to restrict copper exports.

Key Facts:
  • LME three-month copper: $13,791/tonne; all-time high: $14,527.50 (Jan 29)
  • Grasberg mine (Indonesia, 2nd largest) running at ~65% capacity after a landslide
  • Trump administration hinted at 15% tariff on refined copper from 2027
  • Comex inventories up more than 40% year-to-date
  • Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks at ~69,000 t — lowest in 2.5 years, down 80% from March peak
  • China consumes 60% of global copper supply
  • EVs need 3–4× more copper than internal combustion vehicles